THIS OPINION IS STRICTLY PERSONAL: I think that God was kind to Abiola and saved him the disgrace that probably would have happened to him if his election had stood. One of these 2 things would have happened to Abiola if he had became the President:
1. Abiola was seen as a political saviour then, more like a demi-god, the one that will turn Nigeria into an eldorado. The hope, trust, believe, love and confidence reposed in him by the generality of Nigerians would have been too much for him to handle to Nigerians satisfaction. Abiola is no doubt a combination of a successful technocrat and a successful politician, he's well read and understand the business of governance, he meant well for the country, but when too much hope is resided in one person, they end up disappointing. They disappoint, not because they actually perform poorly, but because they fail to meet citizens lofty aspirations, hope and yearnings. When you factor the multifaceted governance problems that Nigeria was facing, battered economy, the heterogeneous nature of the country, polarity along ethnic and religion lines, the strong willed youths and students and the Political heavyweights surrounding Abiola into the scheme of things, you will see that there was absolutely no way he would have sufficiently satisfy the different block groups, many of whom would have revolted against Abiola. He may however survive the onslaught, but it would significantly dwindled his popularity, damage his reputation and strained his acceptability.
These things affected Aregbe; party members who thought they would become Millionaires felt disappointed when the millions was not coming, those who were expecting appointment and the appointment did not materialize or what materialised was below their expectation felt unduly rewarded/forgotten, the youths who led Aregbesola's struggle and thought they will enjoy from the spoil felt betrayed when there was nothing to 'gbenu si', the family of those who were slained backing Aregbe also felt their martyrs were not duly immortalised... In the end, the trio of those Aregbe rewarded; those he insufficiently rewarded and those he did not reward at all, turned their back against him, forgetting that no government can satisfactorily reward all its backers. Aregbesola only served in a state, it's more difficult if it's a country as big and problematic as Nigeria.
A more readily available example is Buhari, Buhari became the President through a popular struggle, Nigerians were simple tired of PDP, we needed a saviour and Buhari was the only option available. No one cared about Buuhari educational background, his plans or his involvement in past _coup d'etat_ in 2015. Many people, in 2015 did not VOTE BUHARI, they VOTED OUT GEJ instead, people erroneously thought he would turn Nigeria to Paris in 4-years, forgetting the daunting challenges facing Nigeria. Today, you find people, in every part of the country, including the Katsina home state of Buhari resenting against him. Not that Buhari failed, but the expectation was too high compared to the reality of things we now have on ground. This, I believe would have happened to Abiola on a more damaging level. Beyond Politics, it's a lesson to us that our hope should be put in God ALONE.
2. As at 1993, Nigeria had only had 10 years of democratic rule in our 33 years of independence, 4 out of those 10 years was ruled by Shagari in palpable military fear. Our democracy in 1993 was not fully formed, it had not evolved to the level it is at the moment, the concept of democracy in practical form was not even understood by most Nigerians. The military were fully in charge, they have overbearing influence on all institutions in Nigeria, they have warmed their ways into our psych. So, the tension, the fear of the military was visibly present everywhere you turned to.
With that, one thing that had a high possibility of happening if Abiola's victory had stood was having Abiola overthrown, either in a bloody or bloodless coup. Abacha as the Chief of Defence Staff (equivalent to Vice-President) was the one leading the annulment crusade, saying Nigeria is not ripe enough for a return to democratic rule, Abacha also had a cult followership in the Military, he was, as at the time of the election, the one in charge of the security apparatus of the military, and by extension Nigeria. He was pushing for a continuity of Military regime, Abacha was ruthless, feared and thus respected, he hated having his suggestion shrugged off, could be temperamental and violent. Babangida said of Abacha's thus: "Sani is opposed to a return to civilian rule. Sani could not stand the idea of Chief Abiola, a Yoruba, becoming his Commander-in-Chief; Sani seems to have the ears of the Northern leaders that no Southerner, especially from the South-West, should become the President of the country. Sani seems to rally the Northern elders to confront me on the matter."
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''Where do I go from here? They did not trust me. Without Sani, I will not be alive today; without the North, I would not have become an officer in the Nigerian Army, and now the President of Nigeria. I did not want to appear ungrateful to Sani; he may not be bright upstairs but he knows how to overthrow governments and overpower coup plotters. Sani risked his life to get me into office in 1983 and 1985; if he says he does not want Chief Abiola, I will not force Chief Abiola on him.''
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Abacha would have successfully toppled the Civilian Government of Abiola had his election stood. Babangida pointed to those salient points that there was already a plan, being orchestrated by Abacha to eliminate him and Abiola if the result of the election was announced and Abiola assumed the Presidency. Babangida categorically said: "They will kill me; they will kill the President-Elect, Chief MKO Abiola, if I went ahead with the election and announced the winner of the elections, which we all know to be Bashorun, MKO Abiola. I know so; I am not daft. He won; he tried. I feel bad about the whole matter... I cannot kill myself for the sake of what the country wants. I am sorry."
Abacha was not alone in the anti-Abiola and anti-Democracy plot. Future Senate President, then a Brigadier-General, David Mark was quoted to have said: "I'd shoot Chief Abiola the day NEC(National Electoral Commission) pronounces him the elected President". Also vehemently against Democracy was Lt. Gen. Joshua Dongoyaro, the then Chief of Defence Staff.
Only few upright officers like Lt. Gen. Saliu Ibrahim, then Chief of Army Staff were opposed to the annulment. Ibrahim was persistently saying the Military had no business doing politics as it was eroding their Professionalism. He lamented the politicisation that had permeated the military; the misuse of the army to achieve the selfish and winding ambition of Babangida - which had begun to seriously erode discipline in the military.
By his antecedent however, the words coming out from the 'Maradona' cannot be fully trusted, the sincerity of what IBB said is hence, in doubt. One thing that is however incontrovertible is that Abacha warned (let's say dare) vehemently against Abiola assuming the Presidency position. So, the chance of a coup if his warning was not heeded were definitely there or to put more succinct, certain.
So, I believe, very convincingly that any of these two things would have happened, Abiola seems not to be bothered about those obvious fears anyway, expectedly so.
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